berto

Wants

• A tabletop dishwasher for kitchenware (plates, cutlery) that works just like bar glass washers. Loading a dishwasher until its full, waiting for the cleaning and unloading it again frequently seems less efficient than cleaning the wares one by one, if there’s a machine that makes the washing fast enough (Nov 2017).
• a gamified toothbrush, that gives me incentives to brush my teeth more often and better (Dec 2016).
• A Transaction Tax that replaces all taxes. This TT is collected by the bank whenever a transaction takes place. Its made of 2 sub-taxes collected at once TT=ST+RT. ST is the Sender Tax and is determined by the Country of the sender of the money; RT is the Receiver Tax and is determined by the Country of where the receiver provides the service; In case the Service isn’t rendered in the same country where the receiver actually is, then the Receiver Tax can be compounded by a factor that reflects this. If the Sender is a company and the Receiver a person, then TT is the income tax. If the Sender and Receiver are the same person, we’re just moving money around (no tax). But if Sender and Receiver is the same corporation, then TT is a tax for an intra-group transaction. If Sender is a person and Receiver a company, TT is a consumer Sale Tax. If Sender and Receiver are companies, TT is a B2B Sale Tax. Etc. To avoid money flowing to the parallel economy, TT for cash withdrawals is big. TT and ST and RT can vary per activity of Sender and Receiver and by the type of product or service rendered.
• A real estate marketplace where properties are always on the market. Objective: register properties of owners who want to sell (regular marketplace) and also those who may sell. Assumption: the majority of the owners will sell for a price that is high enough, and there’s at least a few buyers who are willing to pay extra for particular properties. Currently, finding the price that makes an owner sell means displaying listing the house for the market to see, which is undesirable. Make a marketplace where all properties are anonymous, revealing only broad info like location, highlights, year of construction, state of conservation, decor style and/ or floor-plan. Interested parties have to make a commitment in order to see more info, like paying a fee (lets say $25), or registering their own property; if they don’t make an offer for the property (or another property) within a period, the fee goes to the property owner. Posted Jan 2019.
• ✅ iOS print as PDF for the share functionality. Sep 2017. Released in iOS 11. Nov 2017.
• A setting that would make my browser accept and persist cookies only for sites for which I have a password. That is, I don’t mind that a website stores cookies to make my life easier, but I don’t want to help others track me. Sep 2017.
• Smart App updates. An option for iOS that updates the apps that I use the most more frequently, and the ones that I use infrequently it updates only ~1x month. Apr 2018.
• ✅ An indestructible and nice looking electric bicycle (Sep 2017). Found Budnitz model E. (Sep 2017). No longer sold :(.

Organizations

• ✅ 2017: Apple continues to hold >90% of the profit of the smartphone industry (Dec 2016). Happened.
• ✅ 2017: Apple becomes the number 1 watch maker in the world by revenue (Dec 2016). Tim Cook announced it on 2017-09-12 (September 2017).
• ✅ 2017: VR and AR are not a thing. No single player sells 10m units to consumers (excludes industry) (Dec 2016)
• ✅ 2018: Apple crosses the 1 trillion market capitalisation (Nov 2017). Apple crossed the $1t in market cap on 2018-08-02 (August 2018).
• ❌ 2020: There is at least one worker digital union (syndicate) valued at 1b. These digital unions startups are online aggregators that tilt the bargaining power of individuals vs. big platforms. (Dec 2016). Update: in big platforms I include non-digital companies, it can be a big company. (Set 2017)
• ❌ 2020: There is at least one consumer digital union (cooperative) valued at 1b. These digital unions startups are online aggregators that tilt the bargaining power of individuals vs. big platforms. (Dec 2016)
• ✅ 2020: VR and AR are still not a thing. No single player sells 10m units to consumers (excludes industry) (Dec 2016)
• ✅ 2020: ICOs didn’t kill the VC business. VCs still exist and they’re still how startups get funded. They still deploy the same kind of money they were deploying in 2016, or more. If ICOs and smart contracts have equity-like legal power then VCs invest through them. There are a few ICOs per ecosystem (storage, computing, services), #ICOs « #Startups using ICOs. (Nov 2017)
• ❌ 2020: Rovers for last mile deliveries are rolled out in the whole of one city for all customers by at least one big brand. The city has more than 1 million inhabitants covered by this service. The service can be something like pizza hut, 7 eleven or amazon (Dec 2016)
• ✅ 2020: Air delivery drones are still not a thing for last mile delivery in the conditions defined for rovers above (Dec 2016)
• ❌ 2020: There is a way for non-techies to program connected applications. More than 1 million users create their custom automated workflows apps in a platform. Dec 2016.
• ✅ 2025: Uber has either stopped developing its autonomous hardware for small cars in-house, or became a car maker (Dec 2016)
• 2025: CV on the blockchain. A decentralised social network for CVs has been launched and attracted more than 10m users. Users are incentivised to join by awarding them tokens of the network. They also get more tokens if they remain on the network, potentially tiered by network size, age, or network value. Miners also get tokens. Tokens are used to access the CV data, via API or via the app. The more data of a person or persons you need to access, the more you pay. Users can block certain info, and maybe get less tokens awards. (Feb 2018)
• 2025: Finally, your digital ID now stores passwords for most things, including websites, apps, services, banks, etc. You need only a handful (5), at most. Maybe it depends on a hardware device (Dec 2016)
• 2025: Open-work on Open-source. At least one company worth >$1b opens their code and pays developers across the world by reputation of their commits within their open source software trunk, which can cover all or part of the company. Incentives exist for great contributors, paying them an on-going allowance for some months after their relevant contribution. At least 20% of dev budget is paid out this way. (Oct 2017)
• 2025: Software SIMs are commonplace in smartphones, or whatever replaces them. The pressure of millions of connected devices, MVNOs and other hardware makers and software platforms resulted in that situation (Dec 2016)
• 2025: There are subscriptions for selection of dishes from restaurants. For an amount charged periodically, a user can buy from a few best dishes from the best restaurants. The subscription implies a much lower price than ordering those dishes casually. The user provides stable demand (subscription), which allows the restaurant to offer cheaper price (more volume) on the dishes chosen by the platform, which takes a cut. On each day, a few or all of the dishes of the selection can be ordered online or at the restaurant. Posted in March 2018, updated wording in May 2018.
• 2025: Finally, someone produces a very light, internet-connected device for voice and text that has a battery lasting a week (Dec 2016)
• 2025: Machines can understand 95%+ speakers of a language better than humans with little or no custom training for that user, even in street talk (Dec 2016)
• 2025: verifiable video and photos are a reality. A service exist that verifies when and where a video or photo was taken. Such service is used by a top newspaper of the world (WaPost, Times, NYT, etc). It’s composed by an app which records video or pictures, and that guarantees that the media comes from the camera hardware and that location is from the GPS chip, and not some SW hack. The app then calls a service that stores the media and meta data or a hash of the media and metadata. The service can be a blockchain based service. Separate apps and services allow verifying any video posted anywhere on the internet. Posted in Dec 2017.
• 2025: region lock for content has faded way. Platforms like Netflix, Spotify and iTunes have grown, and international trade deals have helped trigger catalogues that are 90% equal for access in different regions. Has to include at least US and EU. Posted in Dec 2016.
• 2025: Bitcoin (BTC) reaches USD 50.000, Ethereum (ETH) reaches USD 5.000. They don’t need to be at those values by 2025, just reach it before 2025. (Jan 2018)
• 2025: Digital debt is a thing. There is at least one pure-digital debt issuer and one online-first credit worthiness scoring agency. Online identities track your score throughout the internet. They are available for contracting to the majority of clients of a major player with eCommerce or services operations. Can be Amazon, Apple, Google, AliBaba (Dec 2016)
• 2030: Amazon, Facebook or Google’s market value shows a downwards trend until 2030. The fact that their market value is very dependent on a dominant position will attract growing government oversight. Amazon is complex and produces little profit, which makes investment dependent on the market believing on continued growth and market domination - hard to maintain conditions. Google and Facebook make the majority of money from a single service (advertising), and the online ads industry can be changed overnight by governments action or tech disruption. (Dec 2017)
• 2030: There is a working mesh network that is governed by an open protocol spanning millions of nodes that are built into mobile devices like phones or watches. Coverage doesn’t reach the whole US, but some personal devices in cities effectively run critical services (like personal communication) on them (Dec 2016)
• 2030: AB Testing of governments is now possible. At least one country has 2 duplicated and parallel governments that compete with each other for at least one service. An Example is 2 competing tax authorities, polices, health systems, school systems. Citizens can subscribe to either, with duties & rights according to their choice. Likely there is some lock-in when choosing. (Dec 2016) Update: It is required that the services are 100% public, that is, they are ran by the government and not by private companies regulated by the state. It is also required that the funding of the services, that include public workers, depends on the peoples choice. (Dec 2017)
• 2030: Democracy is strengthened in several countries that now have a 4 “independent” power: Executive, Legislative, Judiciary and Informational. The Information body includes the statistics bureaus, labelling norms and data verification. It overall manages consent in society, including actions of the 3 remaining powers (Jan 2017)
• 2030: Computer-brain interface implant debates have been on the front page of the major media outlets. There’s at least a thousand people using them outside pure medical applications (Dec 2016)
• 2030: In several verticals, SaaS no longer dominates. Ex: accounting, corporate communication, etc. Subscriptions lost to Software that is automatically deployed from a open-source/ private repository to the users infrastructure, which is being managed in a consumption/ subscription model. Recipes automate updating and security, scaling etc (the devops). Nov 2017.
• 2030: co-living, co-owning and house time-sharing is big. People are mobile and have contracts that guarantee shelter. The population in the West excluding immigration is declining fast relative to the amount of housing available. That and technology lowers prices. These flexible rental subscriptions have more than a million active contracts. Posted in December 2016, updated wording in May 2018.
• 2030: General purpose AI is still not a thing. Machines can’t take care of themselves autonomously. Machines and algorithms can still only learn what we tell them to learn. Even when they can perform generalization, they can only do it in types of problems we tell them to generalize (Dec 2016)
• 2030: Car sharing and car hailing services provide 50% of more of all intercity trips in one of the largest 100 cities in the world (Dec 2016)
• 2034: USA wins the FIFA World Cup (Football) in any of the previous championships starting in 2022, that is, 2022 or 2026 or 2030 or 2034 or if the format changes any year between 2022 and 2035. (Nov 2022)
• 2035: In the years between Brexit announcement (year 2016) and 2035, per-capita GDP (PPP) in the UK will have grown as much or more than EU average (exc. UK) and of DE, FR, IT. (Jan2018).